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| March 18, 2009 seems like a normal day for most people. Why should it be different than any other day? But I disagree. This day will go down in the history books.
I called up my fiance during work hours and asked if she was free that evening.
"Let's go out and eat tonight," I said. "I'm leaving work at a normal time."
She asks, "what's the occasion?"
"To celebrate..."
And eat we did! We went to this nice little Taiwanese seafood restaurant that newly opened in the neighborhood. And I ordered lobster - not one, but two. As we ate, we talked and enjoyed the atmosphere. I thought about how married life would be, kids, where to live in the future and how to make a living. It was a good evening to celebrate the life we have now and the future.
The future would never be the same.
As we sip our tea and munch on small pieces of fried chicken breast w. basil, a gloomy vision of the future is lingering on the back of my mind. To many of friends, the economic downturn is a cycle. What goes down, will eventually goes up again. But I disagree. I believe that time, it is more structural - as a large part of the 'rich' world population grows older, becomes less productive and more dependent, spends less and starts withdrawing savings and investments. This means that we are in for a long drawn out slump, with ups and down, but the major trend is down.
I wonder what would it be like to live in the changed world? Where will the jobs be? What will people eat during rough times. What would my friends do to pass their free time? What would I do for fun? Will people be traveling for vacation?
An even darker thought is that bad times usually brings out a strong leader. Usually it's a moron who has an appetite for power, using his/her charisma to manipulate the sentiment of the people to do stupid things. In one word, it's war. That's what usually happen throughout human history. Being in the 21st century doesn't make us less human. But that's another topic for another day.
So what really happened on March 18? It was the day the Fed announced that it would buy up to $300 billion US government debt. It also would expand an existing scheme to buy mortgage-related securities by another $850 billion. This news shocked the largest market in the world so much that the world felt the rumble (but most hardly noticed). The foreign currency market shifted. The US dollar dropped the most relative to other currencies in one day since the 1980s. My friends and family that save money in bank accounts or in their safe deposit boxes became about 5% poorer. Since I was betting that this would happen, I made a decent amount in my investments in one day, giving me another reason to appreciate my luck (cuz it won't last!).
This is the beginning of a new chapter in history and people hardly noticed. Americans were too pissed about about the inconsequential bonuses at AIG. But soon many will open their eyes.
While savoring the taste of the ginger and scallion on the lobster tails, I thought about how much better it would be on the outside. To be at a safe distance, while watching the story unfold on TV. To hear about the inevitable protests and violence and arrests (rather than being a part of it), while I play Chinese chess with my dad and chat about a chapter in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms.
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| Written by Tianjin-based poet Li Wei, translated by CDT:
Is Zhang Ziyi pretty or not?
Some say she’s pretty.
Some say she’s not.
Liu Ping in my office says she’s not pretty.
However, Zhang Yimou says she is pretty;
Ang Lee says she is pretty;
Jackie Chan says she is pretty;
Wong Kar-Wai says she is pretty;
Henry Fok Ying-tung’s grandson says she is pretty;
Steven Spielberg says she is pretty;
Now even Feng Xiaogang says she is pretty.
Is Zhang Ziyi pretty or not?
My opinion is
Zhang Ziyi is prettier than Zhang Yimou,
Prettier than Ang Lee,
Prettier than Jackie Chan,
Prettier than Wong Kar-wei,
Prettier than Henry Fok’s grandson,
Prettier than Steven Spielberg,
Even prettier than Feng Xiaogang.
But not as pretty
as Liu Ping in my office.
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| These are painful, but interesting times.
Ever since the Credit Crunch happened, I've been following the news non stop. Not only have I been on top of financial news, but also absorbing varying commentaries and opinions. Recently, speaking with my cousin, who split his time between living in Australia/China, I found that a lot of people in china lost their jobs (no surprise). The next comment made me think a little, "people in China have been poor for a long time. They'll survive."
On a related topic, the newest stimulus package contains a piece that says, "Buy American (Steel)." It sounds good, but doesn't check out upon closer examination. A CBS video recently argued that buy american will save the jobs of steel workers. But when other countries start retaliating, more jobs from other industries will be loss. An example is Caterpillar, the maker of heavy duty vehicles painted bright yellow. They buy American steel to make thier vehicles and sell them outside of the U.S. If other countries start saying "buy China", "Buy India", "Buy Brazil"... Caterpillar will lose business and have to lay off their workers. This is only the beginning of a chain reaction...
Since I have no say what-so-ever on world politics, I can only separate the winners from the losers. Then I can sell the losers short and buy the winners...
-If exports dampen, demand for US Dollars will drop, causing USD to fall
-If stimulus fails, there will be more stimulus until economy starts inflating
-If stimulus succeeds, inflation will increase
-Either way, it means more taxes or more inflation. Since taxes are political suicide for politicians, then the next best thing is to print more money
-Also, printing more money will help people get out of debt (everyone earns more, but can buy less with what they earn, but also can pay off their debt easier with cheapened money)
-As $ becomes less valuable, it is better to spend money than to save. Savings will be destroyed because a dollar saved can buy a lot less in the future.
-But spending too much will bankrupt a person, so spending is not the key
-I rather borrow at a low fixed rate
-And open a bank savings account in Switzerland or invest in foreign currencies/commodities
-Or short sell long duration U.S. treasury bonds without using leverage
Either way - I am telling my friends/family to be careful about savings in U.S. dollar. (or for people that loves to save - spend a little more  ).
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| My 'Hero'
He's not superman or wolverine, but I highly regard this guy. His name is Jim. Most should listen to Mr. Roger's advice and then think for themselves.
Warning - this is in english and cantonese!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUCnWTmneCw
Hehehe.... His best investment advice for 2009/2010:
1. Move to Asia
2. Buy gold (it may go 50% lower, but will shoot to the moon over the next decade)
3. Get pregnant  (because there are very few babies born in 2009/2010, and these babies will have one step up)
What do you think?
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| I got down on one knee and proposed today. In Chinese. She said yes! (After her initial shock wore off and I asked a second time.)
On to the next stage in my life...
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